Global Economy to Strengthen Dramatically Over Next 10 years

A new World Bank study - Prospects for the Global Economy
talks about trends for the global economy over the next ten years.

There is a LOT of good news in this report - especially for developing countries.

"These factors are expected to contribute to better long-term growth performance as compared with past decades. Consistent with recent improvements in economic performance, per capita incomes in developing countries are projected to grow some 3.5 percent a year, more than twice as fast as the 1.5 percent growth rates recorded during the 1990s."

	1980s	1990s	01-06	06-15
Per capita real GDP growth
World	1.3	1.2	1.5	2.1
High Income Countries	2.5	1.8	1.6	2.4
High Income OECD	2.5	1.8	1.6	2.4
United States	2.3	2.0	1.8	2.5
Japan	3.4	1.1	1.1	1.9
High income non-OECD	3.5	4.1	2.0	3.5
Developing Countries	0.7	1.5	3.7	3.5
East Asia & Pacific	5.8	6.3	6.4	5.3
Europe & Central Asia	0.9	-1.8	5.0	3.5
Latin America & Caribbean	-0.9	1.6	1.2	2.4
Middle East & North Africa	-1.1	1.1	2.5	2.6
South Asia	3.3	3.2	4.5	4.2
Sub-Saharan Africa Total	-1.2	-0.5	1.8	1.6

Huge New Telescope in the Works

Scientists are looking to build a 30 meter telescope which will be 100 times more powerful than the Hubble.

Take a look at - Monster Scope to Dwarf Rivals

The TMT project will be the first realization of a new breed of super-scopes, known as Giant Segmented Mirror Telescopes. The National Academy of Sciences, in a report called "Astronomy and Astrophysics in the New Millennium," said these scopes are the top priority for ground-based astronomy.

While traditional telescopes use a single primary mirror, the TMT will use nearly 800 individual mirrors -- all operated in concert by a super-fast computer -- to form a giant primary mirror measuring 30 meters across.

2006 - Another good year for the US Economy

Except for a brief recession in 2001 the US economy has been on a roll since 1991 - a span of 15 years.

An article in the Christian Science Monitor - Next year's economy: The forecast brightens goes into detail on some recent forecasts for 2006.

"Three months ago, we were hearing murmurings about a recession," says Anthony Chan, chief economist at JPMorgan Asset Management in Columbus, Ohio. "Now, the concern is the economy will be so strong next year, it will encourage the Federal Reserve to club it to death.

2005 will be record year for US wind industry

With the extension of wind energy production credit many projects which had been lined up will now be implemented. According to a AWEA (American Wind Energy Association) press release 2005 will be a record year.

The small but burgeoning industry is hard at work planning projects that should make 2005 a record year in terms of new wind generating capability in the U.S. According to AWEA, over 2,000 MW of new wind power capacity is likely to be added during the coming year, or enough to power more than 540,000 homes.

Project announcements for 2005 are rolling in. Four of the top five largest projects announced for construction this year are 200 MW or larger, including the 240-MW Flat Rock Phase I project in New York, the 220-MW Wild Horse project in Washington, the 200-MW Forward Wind Power project in Wisconsin, and the 200-MW Fenton project in Minnesota.

Health of Americans Improving

There was plenty of good news in a recent report from the Centers for Disease Control.

The report, "Deaths: Preliminary Data for 2003," prepared by CDC’s National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS), shows life expectancy at 77.6 years in 2003, up from 77.3 in 2002.

The preliminary age-adjusted death rate in the U.S. reached an all-time low in 2003 of 831.2 deaths per 100,000 population.

Firearm mortality dropped nearly 3 percent between 2002 and 2003.

The preliminary age-adjusted death rate for HIV declined 4.1 percent between 2002 and 2003, continuing a downward trend observed since 1994.

Age-adjusted death rates from alcohol dropped 4.3 percent and the rate for drug-related deaths fell 3.3 percent in 2003.

Japan's Population May Soon Begin to Fall

Another country may soon be added to the list of those with declining populations. The Japanese government reported that the population rise for 2004 was only 0.05% the lowest since World War II. From Japan Times article:

Japan's estimated population registered 0.05 percent growth in the year ended last Oct. 1 for the lowest increase on record and with the number of men marking the first yearly decline, the government said Monday.

The estimated population totaled 127.687 million as of Oct. 1, according to a report from the Internal Affairs and Communications Ministry. The government began collecting data in 1950.

US Forests are Growing

Since 1990 the size of US forests have grown by more than 10 million acres.

In a recent Knight Ridder article,

Despite a booming population and urban sprawl, the United States has gained 10 million acres of forests since 1990. That's enough trees to cover all the land in New Jersey twice.

We're continually growing more than we're cutting," said Brad Smith, an authority on the nation's estimated 3 billion trees at Forest Service headquarters in Arlington, Va. "People think urban sprawl is eating all the forest — we can't say that."

Over the past 50 years, according to the Forest Service, 24 states added woodland — seven of them more than a million acres each. New York, Ohio and Pennsylvania were the biggest gainers. Texas, Florida and California lost the most.

For further information on forest trends in the U.S. over the last 400 years see-
US Forest Service Facts & Trends

Dramatic Decline in Air Pollution for California

Thanks to Green Car Congress - a highly recommended blog - for pointing me to this report by the California Air Resources Board.

The chart below from this report shows the dramatic reductions in pollution over the last twenty years and further improvements for the future.

US Energy Usage

The US is often portrayed as being the energy hog of the world. Although I agree we could definitely be more efficient in our energy usage we are not doing as badly as the media generally portrays. The charts below tell the tale. The population of the US has grown by almost 30% over the period 1980 -2004. During this same period the economy as measured by GDP in constant year 2000 dollars has more than doubled. Meanwhile our energy usage has gone up by about 26%. Our economy has grown almost four times faster versus our energy usage. In fact on a per capita basis our energy usage has declined since 1980! Not bad, with all of those huge SUVs on the road.
Also, note the trend to the flattening out of energy usage over the past 5 years. With more hybrid engines over the next decade and hopefully a lower percentage of SUVs and monster trucks on the road as well as continued slowing in population growth, I think we could grow the economy and lower our energy usage.


Note: the economy chart units is in millions of US dollars. So the the US economy is approaching $11 trillion in GDP. The energy units are trillions of BTUs. The US population as of Dec 31, 2004 is 293.7 million people.

Revolution in Mexico : Affordable Housing

A recent article in the Wall Street Journal talks about changes in the housing market in Mexic0:
WSJ.com - Revolution in Mexico : Affordable Housing

Mexico appears to be finally turning the corner in many aspects of its economy, society , governement etc.. One of its worst performers over the years has been its housing market.

Excerpt:

"The housing growth shows how Mexico is benefiting from 10 years of economic stability, which has helped revive a mortgage market that was wiped out in a mid-1990s financial crisis. The federal government has increased home lending, as has a group of low-cost mortgage providers, such as Hipotecaria Su Casita SA, in Mexico City. A group of developers, including Corporación Geo SA of Mexico City and Pulte Homes Inc. of Bloomfield Hills, Mich., plan to finish some 450,000 low-cost homes this year -- about twice the 2000 level.
Mexico's economic stability also has laid the foundation for a growing mortgage-backed securities market, à la the U.S.'s Fannie Mae. Specialized lenders such as Su Casita have sold mortgage-backed bonds over the past 18 months and are planning more offerings. "

If Mexico's housing market can continue to boom it will be a major force in bringing Mexican people out of poverty. I think the US should be doing all it can to help close the gap in living standards with its neighbor.

Poverty on the Decrease

A recent article in the NY Times by David Brooks talks about the HUGE strides made against poverty around the world. The world economy is currently seeing its fastest growth in over thirty years and this growth is pulling people up out of poverty.

From the article:

"Last week, the World Bank released a report showing that global growth "accelerated sharply" this year to a rate of about 4 percent.

Best of all, the poorer nations are leading the way. Some rich countries, like the U.S. and Japan, are doing well, but the developing world is leading this economic surge. Developing countries are seeing their economies expand by 6.1 percent this year - an unprecedented rate - and, even if you take China, India and Russia out of the equation, developing world growth is still around 5 percent. As even the cautious folks at the World Bank note, all developing regions are growing faster this decade than they did in the 1980's and 90's. ....

In its report, the World Bank notes that economic growth is producing a "spectacular" decline in poverty in East and South Asia. In 1990, there were roughly 472 million people in the East Asia and Pacific region living on less than $1 a day. By 2001, there were 271 million living in extreme poverty, and by 2015, at current projections, there will only be 19 million people living under those conditions...

What explains all this good news? The short answer is this thing we call globalization. Over the past decades, many nations have undertaken structural reforms to lower trade barriers, shore up property rights and free economic activity. International trade is surging. The poor nations that opened themselves up to trade, investment and those evil multinational corporations saw the sharpest poverty declines. Write this on your forehead: Free trade reduces world suffering."

Hybrid Car Sales Increasing

Toyota announced that it will increase production of its Prius hybrid next year. From it's press release:

Toyota Motor Sales (TMS), U.S.A, Inc., today announced its Prius gas-electric hybrid mid-size sedan will receive an increase in allocation for the U.S. market in 2005 calendar year to 100,000 units annually, approximately double the 2004 calendar year allocation. The announcement coincides with Prius surpassing the 100,000 sales mark since the vehicle first went on sale in the U.S. in the summer of 2000

Sales of the Prius reached a record of 6,123 units in October of this year.

Ford has also recently released it's first hybrid - the Escape SUV. Sales for this vehicle were 1130 in October.

Over the next few years hybrids will enter the mainstream of the American auto industry and should help lower our total gasoline usage.

World Economy experiencing fast growth

The world economy is estimated to grow at 5% in 2004 - it's fastest rate in more than 30 years. In a recent presentation IMF economist Raghuram Rajan stated:

"Because of the tremendous growth in the early part of the year, we have raised global growth forecasts from the one we made in April to 5 percent for 2004. This is the fastest in nearly 30 years. For 2005, however, we have lowered our forecast slightly to 4.3 percent, largely reflecting the effects of higher oil prices."

If the world can continue with these strong growth rates over the next twenty years and the population growth continues to slow down as I have talked about in other articles then there will be some very strong improvements in the economic status of the world's poor . If the per capitqa GDP growth could average 3.5% over twenty years then the living standards could effectively double.

Malaria vaccine show promising results

Malaria one of the world's deadliest diseases, killing more than a million people per year - 700,000 of them are children. Even among those who survive the disease malaria is often debilating and dramatically lowers the productivity of those infected. This obviously has severe economic consequences for areas which are prone to malaria.

Recently the Malaria Vaccine Initiative - which is funded by Bill Gates - in cooperation with GlaxoSmithKline announced a new vaccine which was recetly tested in Africa. From the press release -

"These findings represent a breakthrough in the science of malaria vaccines,” offered Dr. Melinda Moree, Ph.D., director of MVI, a global program created to overcome barriers to malaria vaccine development. “They provide convincing evidence that a vaccine could become part of the world’s efforts to spare children and families from the devastating effects of this disease. This brings us another step closer to a licensed vaccine.”In 2000, GSK Biologicals and MVI entered into a partnership to develop the vaccine for children. MVI was started in 1999 with a grant from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, which made this collaboration possible.

According to the study, vaccine efficacy against clinical malaria attacks was 30 percent. Efficacy against primary infection with Plasmodium (P.) falciparum was 45 percent, and efficacy against severe disease was 58 percent. P. falciparum is the parasite that causes the greatest number of cases of malaria in Africa.

“The results of this trial represent a significant scientific advance and an important step forward. In contrast to the previous trials of this vaccine in adults, which suggested that vaccine efficacy was short-lived, protection in these children has lasted at least six months,” Dr. Alonso added. Follow-up with the children continues.

Global trade growing quickly in 2004

The WTO (World Trade Organization) has released a report staing that global trade will increase by 8.5% in 2004 - the fastest gowth in four years.

Another Country Making Strong Progress

There are a number of less-developed countries around the world that are beginning to grow more rapidly and show great potential for the future. Recently I did a short article on Vietnam and talked about its prospects. Today I am focusing on Turkey.

Turkey currently has almost 69 million people and a GDP per capita of $6,700. (PPP) Its economy grew by 5.8 % in 2003 and a recent report by the OECD is predicting growth of 8% this year with the potential for 7% yearly growh in the foreseeable future. Inflation is now running at less than 10% for the first time since 1972.

The prospect and demands of joining the EU may speed up reforms that are necessary for Turkey to acheive these levels of growth. One area that needs drastic improvement is lowering the size of the informal economy and thereby increasing the tax base.

A problem that many developing countries have is a population that is growing too quickly. Once population growth slows down to a reasonable level economies take off. Because of its young population base Turkey's current population growth is still a strong 1.13 %. However, with a fertility rate of 1.98% Turkey has moved below the replacement rate. Assuming this rate continues Turkey's population growth will continue to slow and will eventally stabilize or decrease. Note: The growth rate for Turkey's population was 2.2% and its fertility rate 3.6 in 1990.

Turkey also sits in a great location to serve as a link for trade between Europe and Central Asia. Increased trade and tourism as well as a stabilizing population should help Turkey make the jump into the world's "more developed" countries and greatly improve the lives of it citizens.

World grain supplies

I still see articles in print about how the world food supply will never be able to keep up with population growth. One of the worst culprits of this is the Worldwatch Institute and its director Lester Brown. These guys have been wrong so often you would think that they would be laughed at by any respectable journalist. However, they are still looked at as "experts". I'll never understand why.

Enough ranting... The Wall Street Journal just publiushed a small blurb about a large drop in soybean prices. Why do prices drop? Because supply exceeds demand. As you can see below supply has exceded demand by a lot, a new record!

Oct 13 - WSJ

"The Agriculture Department said the 2004-05 U.S. soybean crop currently being harvested will be 3.11 billion bushels, breaking the previous record of 2.89 billion bushels harvested in 2001. Even more burdensome, world supplies at the end of the marketing year, which runs September to August, are expected to be a massive 59.25 million metric tons -- by far the biggest year-end soybean inventory figure the world has ever seen, market analysts said.
"We've never been above 39 million metric tons," said Patrick Hayes, senior market adviser for Stewart-Peterson in West Bend, Wis., a market advisory firm. "We could lose one-third of Brazil's harvest and still have a record world ending stocks number."

What about corn and wheat? How did they do this year? Forbes published some recent information from the US Argriculture Department on these crops.

US Corn Production

"The department's October crop forecast said the corn harvest would be 11.6 billion bushels, up 15 percent from last year's record 10.1 billion bushels."

World Wheat Production

"The department also said world production of wheat had risen to a record 616 million metric tons, up 64 million metric tons from last year and the largest year-to-year increase in more than 45 years. "

I don't think you will see an article in Worldwatch talking about these record harvests anytime soon.

Population in California

I've talked in other posts about the trend around the world of declining fertility rates and populations. One exception to that trend has been the United States and the state of California in particular. Because of large numbers of immigrants and the supposedly higher fertility rate associated with these newcomers the population of California has been seen projected to continue to boom over the next 50 years.

However a new study by the California State's Department of Finance has found that immigrants are starting to have few children.

According to the San Diego Union-Tribune

California's population is not growing nearly as fast as planners once thought it would and is expected to reach about 51 million residents by 2040 rather than the 58 million once forecast, according to new state estimates...California, currently with about 36 million residents, will continue to grow, but only at about 400,000 people a year, rather than the 600,000 once forecast, according to state planners.

The drop is being attributed to a decrease in births, particularly among Hispanics.

Birth rates have declined among all ethnic and racial groups tracked by the state, but Hispanic women account for the largest number of births, according to Mary Heim, chief of the state Finance Department's demographic research section. Since 1990, however, their birth rates have decreased from an average of 3.41 children per mother to 2.6.

I think that even the numbers stated above may be too high. If the economy of Mexico improves substantially in the next twenty years there will less immigration and a smaller population for California in 2040.

Air Pollution in 2004

How is the fight against air pollution in the US proceding? Based on many reports in the new media you would think that things are getting worse. The article below talks about how 2004 was the best yet in meeting federal air pollution standards. I don't necessarily agree that these standards are the best measure of air pollution but this adds to a lot of other data which show air pollution is getting better in the US and will continue to improve in the future.

Smog Hits a Record Low

Vietnam is progressing nicely

Here in America there are many countries we rarely hear about. One of these is Vietnam. If not for references to John Kerry's service there during the Vietnam war it would barely register in media today. However, Vietnam is one of the many success stories around the world over the last couple of decades.

Vietnam is a country of nearly 83 million people (2004) that has made good strides in a number of areas. It's population growth has slowed down and it now has a fertility rate of 2.22 and dropping.

Its economy has grown substantially. The CIA World Factbook states that it now has a GDP per capita of $2500. (purchasing power parity)

According to the Asian Times Online

Plenty of Vietnamese are still poor, but the situation is not nearly as bad as it once was. A decade ago the World Bank estimated that 58% of Vietnamese lived in poverty. That figure is now below 30%. Moreover, Vietnam has managed steady economic growth averaging better than 7% since the early 1990s.

This year Vietnam's economy is predicted to grow at 7.5-8.5%, and it is expected to continue that growth rate next year.

Tourism is also growing Vietnam

Vietnam welcomed about 1.63 million foreign tourists in the first seven months of this year, a 31 percent increase over the same period last year, according to the Ministry of Planning and Investment.

More Population News

Germany's population is on the verge of declining. The CIA World Factbook's section on Germany gives an estimated population rise of ).02% in 2004. Without inward migration - estimated at 2.18 migrants/per 1000 the population would already be in decline.

In 2003, 706,728 babies were born, down from 719,250 in 2002, according to Statistics Office data. Deaths in 2003 rose to 853,926, from 841,686

In a recent new release concerning Hungary.

Hungary's birth rate has fallen to its lowest level since World War Two, according to official figures released late on Monday.
Hungary's population has shrunk dramatically since the end of communism. It has the lowest life expectancy in Europe outside the former Soviet Union.

The State Statistics Office (KSH) said 30,290 babies were born in the first four months of this year, 361 fewer than in the same period in 2003 and 461 less than in 1999.Hungary's population has declined by almost 600,000 people since 1980 to 10,106,000 million in April 2004.The number of live births is now 9.2 per 1,000.

Water usage

Water is one of the most important issues in the world today. In many part of the world access to clean water is still not available. Here in the United States droughts and overuse of our water resources have caused periodic shortages.

However, in recent years we have begin to use this precious resource more efficiently.

Graphic is from the Pacific Institute report - Waste Not, Want Not

Another report released by the United States Geological Survey in March of this year talks about the solid progress in water conservation.  (I have added emphasis)

The USGS report shows that in 2000, Americans used 408 billion gallons of water per day, a number that has remained fairly stable since 1985 and a sign that conservation is working. In the report, Estimated Use of Water in the United States in 2000, USGS researchers found that the chief water users for the Nation are power generation, agriculture and public water supply. The USGS report also finds that the personal use of water is rising, but not faster than population change.

“It’s pretty good news for the nation that despite the increasing need for water, we have been able to maintain our consumption at fairly stable levels for the past 15 years,” said USGS Chief Hydrologist Robert Hirsch. “It shows that advances in technology in irrigation and power generation allow us to do more with less water.”

Electric power generation, irrigation and public supply account for the bulk of water usage. Power generators make up 48 percent of the usage. Irrigation is 34 percent of the total and public supply (that delivers water to homes, businesses, and industries) accounts for 11 percent of daily water usage. Self-supplied industrial users, livestock, mining, aquaculture and domestic wells, taken together, account for about 7 percent of the Nation's daily water usage.

I was surprised by the amount of water that power generators use. Here in California, some new power plants will be using recycled water. From the California Energy Commission news release Energy Commission Licenses Large Central California Power Plant

As permitted, the power plant will use reclaimed water from the city of Tracy's Wastewater Treatment Plant for cooling, rather than water from the California Aqueduct as the Applicant originally proposed. If the Tesla Power Project and the city of Tracy are unable to come to an agreement on the reclaimed water supply, the applicant must file an amendment with the Energy Commission that includes other cooling options. Today's Final Decision specifies dry cooling as a suggested alternative, to preserve fresh water for other uses.

Traffic Lights

One of the themes of this site is efficiency. I believe there is plenty of room for improvement in the way we interact with our environment. This is especially true in the ways we use energy. Below are a couple of examples of recents articles illustrating large increases in energy efficiency when it comes to traffic signals. Traffic signals operate twenty-four hours a day and are a large cost to many municipalities. Over the past few years many towns and cities have been replacing their old incandescent systems with newer LED bulbs which are up to 80% more efficient and also last longer. The payoff on these new systems can be as low as 12-18 months - with savings for larger cities ranging into millions of dollars per year.

So a city installs these new lights, saves money, uses less energy, which in turn means less power needs to be produced, less CO2 enters the atmosphere, helping with global warming etc... Sounds like a no-brainer to me, but their are still many places that haven't replaced their old traffic light systems.

New traffic lights in Dallas

Traffic signals and walk/don't walk lights should soon be easier to see and cost less in Dallas.
The city is installing energy-efficient light-emitting diode (LED) traffic signals, replacing the old incandescent green and red traffic lights and walk/don't walk indicators.
Some 1,120 city-owned traffic signals will be replaced during the next four months by Public Works and Transportation Department crews. The new signals are more efficient, and the displays are larger and brighter, the city says.
'We are expecting the new, more visible signal displays to provide for safer operations in our intersections,' David Dybala, public works director, said in a news release.]
The new lights require 80 percent less energy and have a six- year warranty compared with one or two years for the incandescent bulb units, he said.
The project is projected to cost $4,091,295, to be paid over six years. The city estimates it will save $3.5 million per year in energy costs.

Heres another example of a town recently replacing its traffic signals
Toronto Star Article

Mississauga's 390 signalized intersections are now completely converted to brighter, energy efficient LED lighting, the municipality has announced.

The project — the first of its kind to be completed in Ontario — was finished one year ahead of schedule and means that the city will save about $500,000 annually in energy and maintenance costs, said Martin Powell, Mississauga's commissioner of transportation and works.

"Mississauga residents will appreciate that the new traffic signals will reduce traffic signal maintenance costs and result in 85 per cent savings in the city's annual hydro bill, savings we have already begun to see," Powell said.

The LED (light-emitting diodes) lighting lasts four times longer than regular lights and use a fraction of the energy. They're also much brighter, which should increase driver safety, Powell said.

While Mississauga is the first to complete the program, many other GTA municipalities have also adopted the bright idea to convert from incandescent lighting.

Food Around the World

Today , I've decided to focus on food production. Many people still believe that the world can't grow enough food to support its current population. Below are a couple of recent stories that show that there is still tremendous capacity for additional food production on this planet.

First from Russia we have a New York Times story describing how people are moving back to empty farms in Eastern Russia. This includes migrant Chinese farmers who use the Russian land to grow crops which they sell in both Russia and China.

But now this rich, arable land is drawing a reverse migration. At last count here in Primorye, or the Maritime province, there were five South Korean commercial farms on leased land and 2,390 Chinese farm workers and sharecroppers.

Russia is still a net food importer from China. But the trend is shifting fast.

Last year, Russia's food exports to China, largely wheat from the Black Sea area, increased sevenfold, to 86,740 tons. During the first five months of this year, China imported, from all countries, 1.49 million tons of wheat, a ninefold increase over the first five months of last year. Even more dramatic, China's wheat supplies are shrinking, hitting about 30 million tons, a two-thirds drop from five years ago.
A Russian land tenure law that went into effect last year allows foreigners to sign 49-year leases for farmland. Better crop varieties, better management and better fertilizers allowed Russia in 2001 to cross over from wheat importer to wheat exporter. During the twilight years of communism, the Soviet Union was buying as much as 18 percent of America's total wheat harvest. Today, Russia, with far cheaper production costs, is elbowing into traditional American markets.

This year, the United States Agriculture Department predicts that Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan will supply 11 percent of the world's internationally traded wheat. Over the next decade, Russia's wheat harvest could increase by as much as a third. As a sign of its coming of age as a world food power, Russia this week made its first donation of wheat to North Korea - 35,000 tons from the Black Sea area.

Next we have a story discussing how China's first rice harvest for this year is predicted to rise. See Good Rice harvest.

Chinese Agriculture Minister Du Qinglin said Wednesday the country's early rice output is expected to grow by more than 13 percent, or 4 mill ion tons, year-on-year after seven consecutive years of dropping output.
...
The good news followed a projected good wheat harvest, which heput at an increase of 2.5 million tons over last year, or an envisaged 3 percent rise over wheat output for 2003, so that this year became the first good year after four consecutive declines over the past four years.

There had been some concerns that China's harvests were declining. It now appears that these declines are more related to declining prices in reecent years which caused farmers to plant less acreage.

Finally The Greatest Story Ever Mistold from the Cato Institute talks about how even the Wall St Journal has a hard time correctly reporting how other countries around the world are catching up with the US in terms of farming.

Part of the problem is the misguided notion of trade as a competition, or even a war. Note the terms like "economic clout," "wheat powerhouse," "economic might." But trade is not a zero-sum game. Everybody wins when more goods are produced. The story of economic progress is the tendency toward increasing specialization and division of labor. When new market participants can produce wheat more cheaply, established wheat producers can move on to other tasks, generally higher-value-added production. If Americans can purchase wheat cheaper than we can make it, then we can turn our labors to software, financial services, engineering, entertainment, computer chips, medical instruments, telecommunications equipment, chemicals, and so on.

China, in a drive for self-sufficiency, has become the world's top wheat producer and is nurturing a sophisticated biotechnology program. India, a land long-associated with hunger, became an important exporter three years ago when it released part of its huge wheat reserves onto the world market.

I also had a previous entry that talked about the need for economies and incomes of poor people to grow so that they can purchase more food. See Enough Food

Improvement in Mexico City's Air Pollution

Thanks to the Great News Network for their link to the following report which was originally published on the Environmental News Network. Excerpts -

By the mid-1980s, the Mexican capital was often called the world's most polluted city.

On March 16, 1992, ozone levels reached a hazardous 398 points on a scale that uses 100 (equivalent to 0.11 parts per million for ozone) as the cutoff at which air is considered unhealthful. They hit 347 points on April 7 of that year.

As of 1993, all new cars had to carry catalytic converters, making them as much as 100 times cleaner than earlier models, Fernandez noted.

The number of days when smog levels are "satisfactory" — 100 points or less for all measured pollutants — has climbed slowly under the federal count, from 10 in 1991 to well over 70 last year. Last year's number was 112 under the system used by local city officials, who don't count some stations that have been frequently out of service in the past.

Unusual weather has added to the boost from antismog measures. March and April saw a total of just 13 smog-trapping thermal inversions this year, compared to 29 in the same months last year. Every day during the week before Easter was within the standards this year. Every day during the Holy Weeks from 2000 through 2003 had violated those standards.

Just as important, there are far fewer days of extreme pollution. Eye-burning ozone levels shot past 200 points on 174 days in 1991 and 58 times in 1998. But there hasn't been a single day with ozone over 200 points in more than a year.

Pollution is a solvable problem and great progress has already been made. See
Less Pollution and Air Pollution in China for previous entries on pollution improvements around the world.

Poverty in India

Although poverty remains a problem in some parts of the world there has been significant improvements over the past two decades. Here's the latest from India -
Indian Government Press Release

As per the latest estimates of poverty by the Planning Commission, in the last two decades, there was a significant decline in the proportion of people living below poverty line. The figure has gone down to 26.1 percent in 1999-2000 from 51.3 per cent in 1977-78. In absolute numbers, the number of the poor declined from 328.9 million to 260.3 million during this period. This estimate is based on the 55th round of NSSO covering the period July 1999 to June 2000. This has been reported in the Economic Survey 2003-04 released by the Government of India today.

This survey is based on 1999-2000 data. With the significant growth in the Indian economy over the past four years and with estimates of 6-8% growth over the near-term future these poverty numbers should continue to decline.

Remote Office

Every time I hit a Starbucks I see people working as if they were in their office.
USATODAY

Starbucks says Wi-Fi now available in 3,100 cafes: "Starbucks said Tuesday that it had installed wireless Internet connections, or 'Wi-Fi,' in more than 3,100 U.S. cafes, including 110 in stores far from technology-rich coastal areas.
New T-Mobile Wi-Fi 'hot spots' were added in stores in Indiana, Kansas, Missouri, New Mexico and Wisconsin, expanding the service first rolled out at Starbucks in August 2002, the world's largest coffee shop chain said.
The company credits Wi-Fi for keeping customers in its stores longer and at off-peak hours, one of several initiatives to boost store sales in recent years.
Subscribers to the T-Mobile HotSpot service visit Starbucks stores an average of eight times a month, stay on line for about an hour and arrive after the morning rush at 9 a.m.
HotSpot has been installed in more than 4,700 U.S. locations, including the Starbucks stores, the company said."

Air pollution in China

It looks like China may implement clean-car standards. Enviromentalists have worried that as China increased its use of automobiles there would be terrrible air pollution in the region. By implementing clean-car standards early in the car-adoption cycle China may bypass some the car-induced pollution that was common in Europe and the US in 1960-1995.
Article

China's environmental watchdog has finished the drafting of an auto emission standard equivalent to Euro III and is expected to adopt it nationwide in 2008.

Wang Jian, an official of the air pollution department of the State Environmental Protection Administration (SEPA), acknowledged that the draft was undergoing the final examination of an expert committee.

But he declined to disclose the date when it will be made public, but said the new standard will be adopted nationwide in 2008.

Wang also said SEPA is negotiating with the country's oil gurus to produce low-sulfur gasoline to match its Euro III plan.

Since China emerged as the fourth largest manufacturer and the third largest consumer of automobiles in 2003, auto emission has overrun industrial dust to become the number one urban air polluter. According to SEPA's estimate, it will account for 79 percent of urban air pollution in 2005.

Low quality gasoline deteriorates the situation caused by soaring numbers. Compared to that in Europe and the United States, it contains three to eight times more sulfur, a chemical producing sulfur dioxide and acid rain in turn after burning.

Last Thursday, China adopted an auto emission standard equivalent to Euro II, which requires a 30.4 percent cut of CO, a 55.8 cut of HC and NO from the Euro I currently applied in China.

Caveat - these standards will do nothing to lower CO2 emissions(global warming). For further information on the EuroIII standards go here.

Bangkok subway draws crowds on opening day

New Subway in Bangkok Although this subway is not predicted to solve the notorious traffic problems in this city it is good to see a "less developed" country moving towards mass transit.

"Officials hope the US$2.5 billion (S$4.3 billion) line could see as many as 100,000 commuters per hour riding the rails."

Less Kids in Switzerland

Yet another country with slowing population growth -
see Swiss population. Over the next decade the population of Switzerland and much of Europe will begin to decline unless the borders are opened up to migrants.
My previous posts on this topic include Population Decline and Birth Rates in Australia

Efficient Motors

World Changing - a highly recommended blog - has an article describing more efficient motors.

Here are some of the savings if these motors were used in Europe:

202 billion kilowatt hours of electricity per year
10 billion Euros per year in electricity costs
another &euro 5-10 billion or so in reduced maintenance costs
&euro 6 billion per year in "reduced environmental costs"
79-100 million tons of CO2 emissions, "equivalent to one quarter of the EU15's Kyoto commitment."
Also equivalent to planting a forest the size of Finland every year.
45 GW of power plants that wouldn't need to be built in the next 20 years
6% of Europe's energy imports

This ties in well with a previous item that I wrote about new air conditioners in the US. There is plenty of room for improvement in our current uses of energy. I think that we could easily keep energy use flat while growing the economy at 3+ % over the next 50 years.

Nuclear Power in Asia

Although no new nuclear power plants have been built in the United States and none are currently planned, plants are still being built around the rest of the world - particularly in Asia.

Twenty-two of the last 31 nuclear power plants have been built in Asia and 18 of the 27 that are currently under construction.

The IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency has released a report - Nuclear Power's Changing Future - which details this information.

Currently 16% of the world's electricity is from nuclear power. Suprisingly, the region that uses nuclear power the most is Western Europe. France gets 75% of it electricity from nuclear, Belgium 58% and Sweden 49% - go here for more stats. Perhaps this is why they are strong supporters of the Kyoto Treaty.

Social Security System

Social Security in Better Shape - Due to lower unemployment and higher wages over the past ten years the health of the Social Security system has improved. An article by Thomas Healey from Harvard's Kennedy School of government.
From the report -

It may come as something of a surprise, then, to learn that the Social Security program, which pays benefits to 47 million Americans, has actually shown significant financial improvement in recent years. How can that be in the face of so many doomsday forecasts? Consider:

• In their latest report, released in March, the Social Security trustees estimate that the system's trust funds (its pool of assets from which benefits are paid) will not be exhausted until 2042. This is 13 years later than the 2029 depletion date envisioned in the trustees' 1997 report. The Congressional Budget Office report on Social Security earlier this month showed a similar direction.

• In like fashion, the estimated year in which Social Security's annual benefit obligations begin to exceed its tax revenue has also receded, from 2012 in the 1997 trustees' report to 2018 in the most recent accounting.

• A crucial indicator known as the "actuarial balance" (the difference between the program's income and cost expressed as percentage of payroll) has fallen from a deficit of 2.23 percent in 1997 to 1.92 percent today.

• In 1997 it appeared that Social Security would go bust before the last of the baby boomers had retired. Now the youngest boomer will be 78 by the projected depletion date, which means the system as it stands will be able to cover the bulk of the baby boomers' benefits. In 1997 this was not expected to be the case.

Enough Food

A front page article from WSJ describes how India and the world is producing plenty of food but people still go hungry. From the article -

...
The paradox is propelling a shift in strategy among the world's hunger fighters. International agencies that once encouraged countries to solve starvation crises by growing more food are now tackling the more fundamental problem of rural poverty as well. The old development mantra -- produce more food, feed more people -- is giving way to a new call: Create more jobs, provide income to buy food.
...
But inadequate infrastructure, local corruption and rural poverty have prevented the chronically hungry -- those who don't eat enough to fulfill basic standards -- from gaining access to this bountiful harvest. After falling for decades, the estimated number of undernourished in the developing world increased by 18 million to 798 million between 1997 and 2001, according to the latest data from the U.N.'s Food and Agriculture Organizatio.
...
Looking for solutions, countries are turning their attention to permanent development projects such as road building that can foster economic activity for the rural poor, and connect them to markets for their produce.

New Efficient Air Conditioners

An article from the Christian Science Monitor - great newspaper - that describes a new generation of air conditioners.
From the article -

So, without much fanfare, the US Department of Energy in April announced that all central home units (which use the lion's share of power, compared to just 12 percent for window units) sold in the US must achieve a "seasonal energy efficiency ratio" of 13 starting in January 2006. That's 30 percent more efficient than today's minimum standard of 10 SEER. (The SEER rating is calculated by dividing the total amount of heat removed from the air by the total energy required by the unit.)

Also see website of Trane - a manufacturer that has doubled the efficiency of it air conditioners. They currently are selling systems with a SEER rating of 19! With these new systems consumers can see annual savings of up to 58% in their electricity usage.

New technology can help us to use less energy while still growing our economy. I am convinced that we can grow our economy by 3% a year over the next fifty years while keeping our energy usage at today's levels. Perhaps we can even decrease our energy usage.

Less Pollution

LA Port Eliminates a Ton of Nitrous Oxide Pollution Daily - By having ships "plug in" to get their energy while docked versus using diesel generators LA port will drastically reduce pollutants.

Cancer Rates

Cancer Incidence and Death Rates from Cancer Decline - In its annual Annual Report to the Nation on the Status of Cancer, the CDC reports that overall observed cancer incidence rates dropped 0.5 percent per year from 1991 to 2001, while death rates from all cancers combined dropped 1.1 percent per year from 1993 to 2001.

Birth Rates in Australia

Australia Trying to Bribe Parents to Have Children An article in Sydney Morning Herald describes the governments plan to offer $3000 to parents to have kids. Australia's fertility rate is now 1.7 children per woman and falling.

Many of the world's most developed countries are worried about upcoming declines in their populations.

Population Decline

Global Baby Bust A great new article in Foreign Affairs describing some of the problems we will face because of declining populations throughout the
world. From the article -

Still, both day-to-day experience and the media frequently suggest that the quality of life enjoyed in the United States and Europe is under threat by population growth. Sprawling suburban development is making traffic worse, driving taxes up, and reducing opportunities to enjoy nature. Televised images of developing-world famine, war, and environmental degradation prompt some to wonder, “Why do these people have so many kids?” Immigrants and other people’s children wind up competing for jobs, access to health care, parking spaces, favorite fishing holes, hiking paths, and spots at the beach. No wonder that, when asked how long it will take for world population to double, nearly half of all Americans say 20 years or less.

Yet a closer look at demographic trends shows that the rate of world population growth has fallen by more than 40 percent since the late 1960s. And forecasts by the UN and other organizations show that, even in the absence of major wars or pandemics, the number of human beings on the planet could well start to decline within the lifetime of today’s children. Demographers at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis predict that human population will peak (at 9 billion) by 2070 and then start to contract. Long before then, many nations will shrink in absolute size, and the average age of the world’s citizens will shoot up dramatically. Moreover, the populations that will age fastest are in the Middle East and other underdeveloped regions. During the remainder of this century, even sub-Saharan Africa will likely grow older than Europe is today.

Almost certainly the population of the world hit its peak and then will begin to decline this next century. In fact, the population of the world in 2100 may be less than it is today.

Retirement for Baby Boomers

A study by Boston College's Center for Retirement Research finds that on average baby boomers will have higher incomes at retirement age versus their parents. Current retirees have a median income of $23,000. Late baby boomers (1956-1965)  will have a median income of $34,000. Also, the poverty rate which is currently 8% for today's retirees
will drop to 4%.

Immigrants Support Their Countries

Study by Inter-American Development Bank shows that Latin American immigrants will send home $30 billion dollars to their country of origin in 2004. These immigrants also contribute $450 billion dollars a year to the US economy.

Less Pollution

New Diesel Rules - The EPA proposes rules to clean up Diesel Pollution in Off Road vehicles. Emissions from these vehicles should be reduced 90% by 2010.